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Underforecasted Screen

Updated

Summary

The Underforecasted screen is meant to help you find periods of time (months/weeks) where you have underforecasted your item outside of a certain tolerance. The goal is to warn you via alerts and identify forecast periods where action may improve forecast error.  Possible actions include adding events, investigating unknown sources of demand and adjusting the forecasts. After investigation it is possible no action is needed in which case the alerts can be paused or ignored. 

Scope

The Underforecased screen is accessed via the Forecast module in Forecast --> Underforecasted.

One grid is available at the top of the screen, which shows the periods that StockIQ is analyzing for under-forecast.  You can control how far back StockIQ is looking in the Global Demand Forecast Settings screen.

This analysis is available at all levels of your forecast hierarchy, e.g. you can see values for the bottom item-site-forecast group level, but also aggregated by item-site, and even at higher levels of aggregation, to see if any broader trends are evident.  You can switch among these levels using the Display options, described in more detail below.

Current Period vs Past Period Alerts

You can have under-forecast alerts for both current and past periods.  We recommend going through and looking at current period alerts starting part way through your month, and continuing to monitor for alerts as the month goes on.  The goal here is to help make you aware of immediately developing problems so that you can act on them as soon as possible.  The sooner you can identify demand that is outside of expected variation, in either direction, the sooner you can react to it accordingly.   

Past period alerts are more useful for identifying things that perhaps you missed before, in that you can identify periods where there were large variations from expected, and make adjustments to help prevent it from happening again if necessary, such as changing your forecasting approach.  You may also find one-off unusual demand that is appropriate to "event out" using the StockIQ Events feature.  

The Unusual Sales screen can be helpful for this too.

Column Description

Several columns of information are available to help you identify issues of forecast vs actuals variance:

  • Alert Priority - Shows the priority of any alert StockIQ is generating for this row, if any.  If the data is within expected range, no alert priority icon is shown.  If there is an out-of-range condition, one of the high/medium/low priority icons will be shown.
  • Hierarchy Level - Shows the level of the hierarchy this particular under-forecast record is from.  This can be down at the very bottom level, or somewhere in the middle such as a product group.  In this way, you can see warnings at all levels of your forecast hierarchy, not just on individual products.
    • NOTE: The default display level for this report is the bottom of your hierarchy.
  • (Hierarchy Property Columns) - each of your hierarchy properties are shown.  Common examples are things like item, site, product type or group, brand, etc.
  • Item, Site- These identify the specific item and site in question.  If you are looking at the "Item" level of the hierarchy, and not at any specific site, the Site Code column will be empty.  
    • NOTE: The default display level for this report is the Item-Site level.
  • FG Name - The forecast group name.  This will be shown if you are looking at the Item-Site-Forecast Group level, otherwise it will be empty.  Note that the default view of this report is the item-site level, so you will have to select this level of detail in the display options if you want to see this level of resolution.
  • Period Date & Interval - This shows the period date and forecasting interval/frequency in question, e.g. the current period, a future period, or a past period.
  • Forecasted Qty - the quantity forecast for this period, at this level of your hierarchy.  This will match up with what you see in the Forecast Manager trend chart.
  • Statistical Qty - The StockIQ statistical forecast quantity (in case you are not auto-forecasting)
  • Projected Qty Sold - Our projection for what you will sell in this period, when looking at the current period forecast vs actuals.  This takes your current actual demand and projects it forward to the end of the month, using the Current Period Projection logic.
  • Qty Sold - This column is available in the column chooser, and allows you to display what you have ACTUALLY sold already in this period, if you are looking at a current period row.  If you are looking at past period lines, the Qty Sold and Projected Qty sold will be the same value, as the period has completed.
  • Stat Error Units - Error of the statistical forecast vs actuals in this period, shown in units.
  • Forecast Error Units - Error of the operational forecast vs actuals in this period, shown in units.
  • Statistical Error $ - Error of the statistical forecast vs actuals in this period, expressed in your currency (usually USD), in terms of Revenue
  • Under Forecast $ - Error of the operational under-forecast value in this period, expressed in your currency (usually USD), in terms of Revenue
  • Statistical Error % - error percent of the stat forecast vs actuals in this period, usually in calculated via MAE%, but configurable in your global demand forecast settings.
  • Forecast Error % - error percent of the forecast vs actuals in this period, usually in terms of MAE%, but configurable in your global demand forecast settings.
  • Avg Forecast Error % - Average historical forecast error percent over the Error Sample Length in your Global Demand Forecast Settings, usually the last six months.
  • Avg Stat Error % - Average expected statistical forecast error of the current statistical model over the Error Sample Length in your Global Demand Forecast Settings, usually the last six months.
  • Lower Bound (Units) - The lower bound of what is considered "within range" of expected variation, based on settings in the Forecast Vs Actuals Alert Settings.
  • Upper Bound (Units) - The lower bound of what is considered "within range" of expected variation, based on settings in the Forecast Vs Actuals Alert Settings.
  • Usage - Shows you the usage pattern calculated for this item by StockIQ.
  • Auto FC? - Shows whether this hierarchy node is auto-forecasted or not, allowing you to filter by system- or user-controlled items easily.
  • Projected Out of Stock -  If this item is projected to be out of stock as a result of forecast vs actuals variance (e.g. you have way over-sold forecast), this shows you the date that it is expected to stock out, which will help prioritize taking action on these items.
  • Next Order Dock Date - Similarly, we also show if there is an order already incoming for this item, and if so, when it will arrive.

Context Menu

When in the upper data grid you can access the following context menu, including the ability to open the specific hierarchy node in Forecast Manager or in Order Schedule.   Order schedule always needs item-site scope.  

Detail Tabs

Some tabs are available at the bottom of the screen to help provide some additional insight.

Trend Chart - This chart is the same as the summary chart from the Forecast Manager, with one modification.  When looking at a "Past period" row, a gray area showing the calculated upper and lower bound tolerance limits will be overlaid on the chart, giving you a visual of what periods are out-of-expected-range, and thus generating an alert message.

Per-Period error over Time - This displays a visual indication of the individual per-period error over time in either units or percent, giving you a visual indicator of how wrong, and in what direction, your forecast and statistical forecast have been.

Unusual Sales - A common cause of under forecasting is unusual sales.  If you see any listed for your product, you can create an event right then and there in this window.

Alerts - Shows other alerts related to this item that may help show the cause for the under-forecast.

Display Options

The display options allow you to tailor your screen somewhat:

  • Hierarchy - Allows you to select which forecasting hierarchy to use.  This option is not commonly used - everybody has just one hierarchy for now.
  • Hierarchy Level - Allows you to select which level of the forecasting hierarchy you want to use for viewing your forecast vs actuals data, such as the item-site or item-site forecast group levels
  • Demand Forecast Series - This also is infrequently used - almost everybody has just one forecasting series.
  • Error Measure - Controls which error measure to show in the Per-Period Error over Time chart.

Underforecast Alert Settings

The Alert Button provides the master control parameters for the Underforecast Alert.  This button enables the alerts and explains High, Medium and Low alerts.   

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