Skip to main content

Forecast Settings Tab

Updated

Summary

The forecast settings tab of Forecast Manager allows you to modify how an item or other hierarchy node is being forecasted.

It is located primarily in the bottom half of the Forecast Manager screen, in amongst the other settings tabs.

The most common use of this tab is to change forecast control of an item from auto, to manual, and back.

Settings & Information

The following are the fields displayed in this tab:

  • Control Description - This describes how the item's forecast settings are being controlled, or inherited.  All forecast settings in StockIQ exist in terms of the forecast hierarchy, including the forecast settings.
    • Default - If this says "Defaults" and then some other text, then the system defaults are in place.  Usually this means the forecast is being controlled in a bottom-up fashion from the forecast-group level.
    • Override - This means that you have saved an override of some type for this specific node, e.g. the settings are overridden somehow, and are no longer using defaults.
    • Inherited Override - There is a node higher up the hierarchy, say at a product group level, that is overriding the system defaults.  You can either save your own override at this level, which will then take precedence over the parent override, or modify the parent override instead, the level of which is called out in the control description text.
  • Interval - Sets if the item is being forecasted Monthly or Weekly.  Generally it is best to leave this the same as your system default.  You can change the forecast interval, but note it will remove any saved forecast history and snapshots.
  • Forecast Control - Sets how the item is being forecasted or not.
    • Auto forecast - the StockIQ statistical model will be copied into your Independent Forecast, so you will be using StockIQ's forecast.
    • Manual - StockIQ's statistical model is not used - the independent forecast will stay the same unless updated by a user, or set back to Auto.
    • Not Forecasted- The selected hierarchy node (and any node below) will not have a calculated forecast
  • Freeze Periods - This option allows you to put in a forecast freeze horizon, so that users will not be able to modify the forecast within a certain time period.  When specified, other aspects of StockIQ will honor this too - the forecast edit grid, the forecast wizard, edit customer forecasts, and so on.  As well, you now have the option to allow/disallow changes within the freeze horizon when using the Import Forecasts Screen.
  • Forecast Blending- This option allows you to blend forecasts across your different Forecast Series into one at the selected hierarchy node
  • Auto-FC Resume On- If you are auto-forecasting an item, you have the option to temporarily disable auto-forecasting by putting a resume-on date.  Enter a date, and StockIQ will suspend the auto-forecasting behavior for an item until that date.  Very common is to adjust forecast points for the next few months, and then allow StockIQ to resume after that time.
    • NOTE: The Auto-Forecast resume date is always the start of a forecast period.  So even if you type in 1/5/2024 for Jan 5th, StockIQ will change this to 1/1/2024 when the auto forecast start date is resumed.  It is not possible to resume auto forecasting in the middle of a forecast period.
  • Continue Applying Statistical model After Resume Date - This checkbox controls whether the forecast you've saved is "frozen in time" after your auto-forecast resume date or not.
    • When UNCHECKED, the manual forecast you've put in place is 100% frozen in time, even for time periods after your auto forecast resume date.  StockIQ will make NO changes to your forecast until today's date is on or after the auto-forecast resume date.  
    • When CHECKED, the forecast values for which you have set a manual forecast will be unchanged up to the auto-forecast resume date (same as above).  But, as time goes on, StockIQ will update forecast values on and after your auto-forecast resume date.  This means that forecasts on and after your resume date will continue to update as the statistical model changes, even as points before your resume date remain fixed in time.
    • Example:  Say on January 1st, you saved a forecast with a resume date of July 1st.  If today is April 1st, with this checkbox unchecked, the forecast will be 100% unchanged until July 1st - it is completely as you originally saved it on January 1st for all time periods.  However, if checked, forecast from July 1st onward will now be different, since the statistical model will have updated due to new data points from Jan, Feb, and March sales history - StockIQ continued applying the statistical model to forecast values after your auto-forecast resume date.
  • Algorithm Start Date - When StockIQ views the beginning-of-life for an item can have a significant effect on its forecast.
    • From First Sale - StockIQ will begin forecasting the item from its first sale date
    • From Creation Date - StockIQ will forecast the item starting in the bucket of its creation date.  If the item exists for several months before its first sale, this can strongly affect the initial forecasts generated for this item.
    • From Forecast Settings - Allows you to type in a specific date that StockIQ should use to start forecasting
    • From Date First Stocked - Like the creation date, allows StockIQ to start forecasting from the first date the item was stocked and available for sale.
  • Min Hits to Begin Forecasting - You can use this option to instruct StockIQ not to begin forecasting until at least some minimum number of hits exist for a particular hierarchy node.  For example, if a new customer or new customer group buys an item for the first time, you may not want to automatically begin forecasting for that, since it could be a one-off.  Now, you can instruct StockIQ not to forecast right away, but wait for 2,3,4, etc. number of hits before generating a forecast.  Coupled with the Unusual Sales screen, this can make sure you are not getting spurious forecasts.
    • NOTE: If events are present on the node, this setting is ignored.  The idea here is that if you've taken the time to add events, such as for future/anticipated demand, it implies that you have taken control of this item's forecast to some degree and we should not ignore the forecast resulting from your events.
  • Prorate First Period Sales - When enabled, StockIQ will look at the first period of sales for a product, and determine how far into the period that first sale occurred, then prorate "what would our total have been if we were selling it the whole month?"  This can be helpful to prevent the 2nd month looking like large growth relative to the first, when in reality it was just that the 1st month (or week) was only a partial period of sales.  In turn, projections of growth can be lessened somewhat.  This is useful for high volume items with many individual smaller sales, where the number of missed days within the period can be important to the overall sales total.

Troubleshooting

  • It is a good general practice if you are updating settings you should make a note for yourself and others as to the change and the date you are making the change
  • Try the simulation option in the edit menu if you are unsure about saving the results

Related articles