Summary
The Manual Forecasts screen is to help you know what items are currently being manually forecasted, and where those settings are controlled, up and down your forecast hierarchy.
You can reach it by clicking to Forecast --> Manual Forecasts.
The screen is divided into two main tabs with master information, and detail tabs at the bottom which update based on your selection in the currently visible master grid.
Column Descriptions
Summary Tab
The summary tab shows summary information about which items are set to manual forecast. Some description of the available columns is below:
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Inherited Setting? - Indicates if this item is manual due to its own settings (non-inherited) or due to inheriting manual settings from a top-down setting. If inherited, the manual forecast on this item is coming from a higher level of the hierarchy. If you wish to see only specific settings that users have made, filter on seeing only inherited = false, so you can see from where manual settings are being driven.
- NOTE: you will have to enable the "Show Inherited Settings" option in the Display Options (see below) to see settings that are inherited. Only master (non-inherited) settings are shown by default.
- Hierarchy Level - The hierarchy level of the item that you are viewing.
- Controlled At Level - Shows the level at which this item's settings are being controlled. If the item's settings are inherited, it will be at some higher level of the hierarchy, otherwise, it will match the hierarchy level.
- Interval - The forecasting interval, e.g. monthly or weekly
- Forecast Control - Indicates if the item is fully manual ("Manual"), or Auto-forecasted with a start date in the future.
- Auto Forecast Reactivation Date - If the item's control is "Auto", indicates when the auto-forecast will resume.
- Date Updated - When the settings for this item were last updated.
- Updated By - Which user made those changes.
- Note - The note the user included at save time.
- Forecast Date Updated - The last time the forecast itself was updated. When a forecast is manual, it might be updated multiple times after the settings are flipped to manual.
- Forecast Updated By User Name - User who changed the forecast, in case different from whoever set the initial forecast settings.
- Forecast Note - The note saved with the forecast when it was saved.
Manual Vs Statistical Tab
This tab shows a bit more detail about the specific forecast values in place, comparing the manual forecast to the statistical forecast, e.g. Forecast Vs Model. The goal here is to highlight items where the manual forecast varies beyond too far of a range from the statistical model. If the variance is too large, StockIQ will generate a Forecast Vs Model alert, settings for which can be configured in the Alert Settings (see below)
In the grid are several columns of useful information:
- Alert Bell - Indicates if this period has generated an alert or not, and if so, what priority
- Alert State - indicates if the alert is active, suspended, or reactivated by StockIQ
- Level - Indicates the hierarchy level of the data being viewed
- Period Date - the period date being viewed, e.g. for which month we're comparing forecast vs the model.
- Fcst Series - Indicates which series is being evaluated. Most of the time this is just your sole forecast series, the Independent Forecast.
- Interval - The forecasting interval, most commonly folks forecast monthly.
- Forecasted Qty - The quantity in place on the forecast series for this particular period
- Statistical Qty- The quantity calculated by the Statistical Forecast in this particular period for this item.
- Fcst $ - the dollar value associated with that forecasted quantity.
- Fcst Vs Stat Units - Compares the units between the two to give you a delta. Positive if the the stat model is higher.
- Avg Fcst Error % - Shows the average forecast error percent, according to your average error settings in your Global Demand Forecast Settings. 6 and 12 month ranges are common here.
- Avg Stat. Error % - Shows the average statistical model's error percent, according to your Global Demand Forecast settings, as above.
- Upper Bound (Units) - shows the upper bound of units for your forecast that would be considered "in range" and not generate an alert. If your Forecasted Qty is above this value, then it will possibly cause an alert if it meets other criteria. This range is set by your alert settings (Below).
- Lower Bound (Units) - shows the lower bound of units in your forecast that would be considered "in range" and not generate an alert. If your forecast is less than this value, then it will possibly cause an alert if it meets other criteria. This range is set by your alert settings (Below).
- Usage - The calculated usage pattern for this hierarchy node. Note this is calculated for this particular hierarchy node, e.g. the item-site-forecast group, or the category etc, and may differ from the Item-Site's specific usage pattern if this is not at the item-site level.
- Auto FC Reactivate - shows the auto forecast reactivate date for the selected row, if any.
- Projected Out Of Stock - shows if the item is projected to be out of stock, possibly as a result of the forecast vs model error, giving you the ability to prioritize which of these messages is most important.
Detail Tabs
The detail tabs at the bottom of the screen allow you to show your Forecast Summary Trend Chart, the same as you see in Forecast Manager, as well as snapshots of forecast history, also as in Forecast Manager.
The Forecast Settings tab will allow you to update settings from this screen as well, such as if you wish to disable a manual forecast and return it to defaults, or re-enable auto forecasting. You can also Bulk Edit these settings (see below)
Bulk Edit Forecast Settings
While in the "Summary" master tab, if you select multiple items, and click the Edit --> "Bulk Edit Forecast Settings" option, you will get a popup that gives you one of two options:
- Set to Default - This will remove any settings overrides for the selected hierarchy node, if they are present. That node will revert to its default state, which is to inherit any settings that might be above it. If no settings are above it in the hierarchy, it will use system defaults, which is typically to resume auto-forecasting.
- Set Auto Forecast - This option specifically forces an auto forecast to the selected node, so even if there are top-down settings affecting this item, it will immediately set itself to auto-forecast with an explicitly saved override. If the selected node is at a level of the hierarchy above the bottom item-site-forecast group level, it will also save that top-down forecast to any children in the forecast hierarchy (as in the normal inherited forecast process).
Display Options
In addition to the standard filters and view saving buttons, there are display options to help control what you are seeing in the screen.
- Hierarchy Level - By default, StockIQ will show settings at all levels of the hierarchy. If you want to focus on one level, such as your bottom item-site-forecast group level, you can select the level (e.g. "Forecast Group")
- Show Current & Future Actuals - simply sets whether current-and-future period demand is shown on the forecast trend summary chart.
- Show Inherited Settings - Controls whether forecast records shown include lines where the manual setting is inherited from a higher level or not.
- Show Annotations - If annotations have been added you can choose to display them on the chart or not.